TT30

Observations from My Recent Trip to Kosovo

Posted by Andrew Yang, 7/24/07

There are lots of fun, interesting or downright horrifying things I can write about this two week experience in Kosovo (on top of my previous stint working there). But I’m going to stick to the topic of development (it’s long enough as it is!!). Below I've gathered quotes, anecdotes, and observations that made such strong impressions on me, I am still reflecting on them to this moment. They will help explain why my experiences in Kosovo have further increased my doubts about the traditional instruments of development. (primarily projects from actors like the UN, USAID, World Bank, contractors, large development NGOs like CRS, CHF, and others like Red Cross, etc.)

My conversations with people in Kosovo often brought out some intense emotions, and one of the most frustrating things for them could be summed up by the following comment: “millions and millions of dollars have come into Kosovo… we see it on TV all the time. Yet we look around us, and lives in our communities have not gotten that much better. Where have all the money gone? Look at that gap, and tell me there is no manipulation [corruption]!” Another couple living in a slum-like neighborhood said to me: “we expected to live like you do.” “Like Americans?” I asked somewhat incredulously. They answered without hesitation: “why not? We certainly deserve something better than this.” Even where families provided a long list of materials they received, most did not believe their lives had changed in significant ways.

Response time, limits to growth and China

-- A. Linhares

I've been invited to speak in the Getulio Vargas Foundation about my work related to tt30, and decided to introduce, in a brief 20 minutes, The Club of Rome, Limits to Growth, the coming global bargain, and what we've been doing these last years.

Imagine you are the owner of a large resort, with a beautiful lake.  However, danger lurks in the horizon.  Imagine you have a lillipad problem, with those growing at an exponential rate, doubling as each day passes.  When would you find out that it was a serious problem?  Consider three cases.  If you found out whenever the lilipads reached 50% of the lake, you would have a single day to respond before they covered the entire lake.  If you found at 25%, you would have only two days.  If you found at 12.5%, three days.  And if you found at 6.25%--c'mon, this is hypothetical, and you don't need to lie.  Nobody would find it at 6,25%; but even if they did, that's only four days to respond! 

This is the immense problem with exponential growth.  We've been having exponential growth in numerous areas: population, economic activity, pollution, and so forth.  How long do we have until a serious limit is reached?  China's economy, for instance, has grown close to 12% this year alone. This means that they are, in practice, doubling their economic activity each 6 to 7 years. Thus, you might want to call the exponential explosion in industrial output circa 2000 as "China" (see slide 11 here). (And you can imagine this can only be at some consequence.)

I mentioned also that China is moving cities around like FGV would make minor redecorations.  Below is Ed Burtynsky's TED prize video, which I wish I had had time to show in my presentation. This is sobering stuff, something you won't regret watching in full.

 

Green Market Hustlers

From Foreign Policy in Focus

- M. K. Dorsey | June 19, 2007

On the opening panel of the Arctic Science Summit Week, Jeff Miotke announced, “Climate change policy must be based on sound silence.” It was a poignant and telling slip of the tongue. Miotke, the State Department’s deputy assistant secretary of Bureau of Oceans and International Environmental Scientific Affairs, joked that his error might have “just cost me my job.” Then he promptly corrected himself: “sound science not silence.” The audience at the March 2007 meeting, a veritable who’s who of leading polar scientists, burst into laughter.

Miotke’s Freudian slip was bittersweet given the failure of leadership on climate change from Washington in general and the White House in particular. The Bush administration’s legacy of denials has morphed into present-day foot-dragging. In November 2006 the shrill pronouncements of President Bush and his advisors prompted outgoing UN Secretary General Kofi Annan to note that climate skeptics “are out of step, out of arguments, and out of time.”  ...

[full piece at: Foreign Policy In Focus] [.pdf]

[also running at Asia Times]